Could a Failed Soviet Space Probe Crash Into Minnesota This Weekend?

In 1972, the Soviets launched a probe destined for the planet Venus.

But something went wrong.

And the Kosmos 482 Venus probe was left to circle Earth, including its hardy little lander capsule.

But what goes up, must come down. And with 482's deteriorating orbit comes the prediction: Kosmos 482 will return to Earth.

And soon.

In fact, Marco Langbroek of SatTrackCam Leiden in the Netherlands has been tracking 482 for years.

He now estimates rentry will happen May 10th, give or take 2.2 days.

And because that interplanetary capsule was built to withstand incredible atmospheric pressures and temperatures on Venus, Langbroek writes it's "possible that it will survive reentry through the Earth atmosphere intact, and impact intact."

Great.

So a big piece of Soviet era space junk (that the Russians won't admit is there's, but that's another story) is coming down soon.

The question is...WHERE?

WILL THE SOVIET PROBE CRASH IN MINNESOTA?

Because I'm a reporter -- and not a math major -- I asked ChatGPT to help calm my nerves.

I gave it the information we've already discussed and asked it to assess the potential impact area.

A.I. explained to me the area of the Earth between 52ºN and 52ºS makes up about 78.8% of our planet's surface. And within this area, 45% of that is land, while 55% is water.

The state of Minnesota represents roughly .00056% of this area. And at around 45* N latitude, Minnesota DOES lie within the potential impact zone.

But ChatGPT put the likelihood of the Kosmos 482 probe crashing into the Gopher State this weekend as "extremely low."

But as the Washington Post reports, NASA said "it is highly unlikely — but not impossible — that it could hit someone."

Again, great.

WHAT TO EXPECT

Because Kosmos 482 was built to enter Venus' atmosphere, it's a hardy little guy. And the European Space Agency says it's "highly likely" it will reach Earth's surface in one piece.

If it were to reenter over Minnesota, Earth and Sky suggests it would appears as "a bright, slow-moving fireball, possibly breaking apart as it descends."

But again, that's highly unlikely.

At 495 kg -- 1,085 pounds -- the lander poses "the usual one-in-several-thousand chance of hitting someone," according to astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell of the Harvard and Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics.

As he wrote in April, "The vehicle is dense but inert and has no nuclear materials. No need for major concern, but you wouldn't want it bashing you on the head."

Stay tuned. Scientists will get a better estimate as we get closer to reentry.