St. Paul, MN (KROC-AM News) - New coronavirus pandemic modeling released today by the Minnesota Department of Health suggests another extension of the Stay at Home order would result in about 50 fewer deaths from the new viral illness.

The updated modeling forecasts Minnesota reaching its peak for COVID-19 activity in late June if the Stay at Home order ends on May 18th. Under that scenario, the modeling projects the number of coronavirus-related deaths in the state will climb to just over 1440 by the end of this month, while the death toll over a 12-month period is forecast to reach about 29,000. Peak ICU bed usage would be around 3400.

If the Stay at Home order were to be extended until the end of May, Minnesota is projected to see just under 1390 deaths by May 31st and the overall pandemic death toll would drop by about 1000. It's also estimated the longer Stay at Home order would reduce the peak ICU bed usage by about 400 and pushed the peak for overall COVID-19 activity out to July 6th.

MN Dept. of Health
MN Dept. of Health

In both cases, the updated modeling is predicting the number of COVID-19 deaths in Minnesota will more than double over the next several weeks. State Health Commissioner Jan Malcolm stressed that the modeling is just one of the tools used by officials in the pandemic decision-making process.

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